The Black Swan Playbook

Most crisis training prepares you for problems you have seen before. Black Swan events are different. They are the ones nobody predicted, the data does not explain, and your existing playbook makes worse. This workshop arms leaders with the specific mental models, decision frameworks, and cognitive habits that allow them to act decisively when the situation has no precedent, the information is unreliable, and waiting for certainty is not an option. The leaders who win in extreme events are not the ones who stayed calm. They are the ones who knew what to do next.

  • Classroom (group of 3-15)
  • Certificate upon completion
  • 2 Hours (1 day)
  • English
Dubai
AED 899
  • AED 899

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The Black Swan Playbook
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What will you learn?

  • Recognise a Black Swan event before you misdiagnose it as a normal crisis and waste the time you do not have.
  • Apply three decision frameworks that work specifically when data is incomplete and pressure is at its highest.
  • Identify the cognitive biases that hijack leadership judgment in extreme uncertainty and override them in real time.
  • Build a personal decision protocol you can activate immediately when a situation exceeds your existing experience.
  • Leave with a one-page Black Swan Response Card ready to use the moment everything goes sideways.

Prerequisites

Participants should have some experience in business, product management, or leadership roles.

Course Curriculum

4h total length

Day 1 – Acting Under Radical Uncertainty

Section 1: What Makes This Different: The Black Swan Mental Model

  • Distinguish a true Black Swan from a manageable crisis and explain why that distinction determines your entire response.

  • Identify the three most dangerous assumptions leaders make in the first 24 hours of an unprecedented event.

  • Map what you actually know, what you think you know, and what you are completely blind to.

  • Shift from leader with answers to architect of rapid learning in a Black Swan scenario.

Hands-On Exercise: Participants classify three real-world crisis scenarios, identifying which is a true Black Swan and what dangerous assumptions leaders typically make in each.

Section 2: Deciding When You Cannot Know: Frameworks for Extreme Uncertainty

  • Apply the OODA Loop to compress decision cycles under extreme time pressure without losing critical judgment.

  • Use pre-mortem thinking to stress-test a high-stakes decision in under 10 minutes.

  • Design a minimum viable decision that buys information and time without locking in a catastrophic direction.

  • Build a personal one-page Black Swan Response Card as your pre-committed decision protocol.

Hands-On Exercise: Given a live Black Swan scenario, participants have 10 minutes to produce their first decision, their reasoning, and their next trigger point.

Learn from an Expert in Global operations

Beatrice Manso is an accomplished leader with extensive expertise in Global Operations, with a strong focus on the eCommerce and Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) industries. Currently leading the Global Centre of Excellence for Direct Selling at Mars Petcare, she collaborates with businesses to design customized solutions and implement strategies that drive operational excellence and scalability. Her career highlights include her leadership in team reorganizations, where she has effectively structured high-performing teams to meet evolving business needs

Beatrice Manso

Beatrice Manso

Accomplished Leader in eCommerce and D2C

  • Ex- Gucci
  • Professor at ESCP Business school

About us

Inara is a dynamic hub for learning, innovation, and future-ready skills, dedicated to helping individuals and organisations grow with confidence in a world defined by technology, leadership, and creativity.

Founded in Dubai, a city that embodies ambition and progress, Inara was created to deliver modern, practical, and impactful training that evolves with the pace of change. Every programme is designed to inspire growth, spark innovation, and prepare people for what's next. Through partnerships with globally recognised institutions and certified providers, Inara offers access to internationally respected qualifications delivered by expert trainers who combine academic excellence with real-world insight—empowering learners and organisations to stay ahead in a rapidly transforming world.
Kognitiv Academy is a global enterprise training and consulting firm serving industry leaders across multiple regions. We specialise in capacity building and talent development, offering customisable programmes designed to elevate organisational performance across a wide range of disciplines.

We support organisations in identifying their most important goals and work closely with leadership teams to drive meaningful, long-lasting improvements. Our faculty brings strong expertise across coaching, facilitation, counselling, strategising, and organisational development, ensuring every engagement is purposeful and impactful. Everything we deliver is grounded in our commitment to excellence, a client-centred approach, and a foundation of trust and integrity. These principles guide our work and shape the long-term partnerships we build with clients around the world.